thomas ramseyer-volkart

ECB grants European Bank EUR 500 Billion for 3 years at lowest level ever

thomasramseyervolkart — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 11:24:44 +0000

Author Thomas Ramseyer
ECB action only to save the banks’ butts
It is very important to understand that there is NO fresh money resulting from this transactions. This like any other transaction done by Central Banks have to be collateralized in the case of REPO or there must be another countervalue such as foreign currencies sold to ECB or temporary swap arrangements.

ECB’s goal is to step in for the vanishing investors
The idea is to grant the refinancing of the banks’ debt to redeemed by the end of the next three years. It is said that rotten paper can be transferred as collateral to the ECB.

Banks need EUR 500 Billion for getting hurt due to investors’ change of paradigm
As the banks need that money for refinancing themselves in revolving activities, the volume of their debtors’ accounts do not change. Maybe ECB and the market participants dream about the banks passing the cheap money to their debors at substantial lower levels.

Low interest rates will not be passed to users
This will not be done. The banks will take the advantage to bolster their reserves by cashing higher interest spreads. Also they will roll over their government debt paper.

Investors will not trust the banks just because of some desperate measures taken by ECB and other Central Banks
Because of those desperate ECB-activities the investors’ trust in the banks will not ameliorate. Most important there is the fact that the garbage collateral parked with the ECB for three years will come back upon redemption of the low-interest credits.

Remedy to cure national accounts is austerity
The only remedy to cure the sickness is the austerity of various peoples

All the countries shall reach the 60% – all of them are well above this border right now – of the GDP with a yearly maximum growthrate of 3% new debt. This goal will be achieved only through lower governmental expenditures and higher tax. The vicious cercle kicked off by politicians will lower the economic growthrates throughout Europe, in fact throughout the world. The rates may even become negative the GDPs to shrink.

Demand for credit low and lower
Faltering economy will have demand dying off. People will realize that if austerity is wanted they must lower their private debts as well, what they will do. If this not being done the private housholds are going to take the bash twice. They will end up staring at the shattered remnets of their wealth.

Findings
If proceeding like in the past the northern countries will face a much longer period of time with a zero or even contracting delta of the economies.

Redommendation and Advice
1) Citizens produce, consume, pay everything
Citizens must recognize that everything even down to tiny bits will weighing on their shoulders. What politicians do is having the souvereign shove the money from one pocket to the other. When it comes to redeem some debt they dig a hole to fill the other.

2) The rules of the forefathers to be re-implemented
Citizens must save before consuming; never consume before saving.

3) Whole population to bay down their debts to ban vulnerability
Citizens must pay down their debt – mortgage debt as well as credit card debt – to substantial lower levels thus to cut down the risk of being executed by financial intermediaries.

4) As politicians are too timid people take back responsability
Citizens take back the initiative. They do not wait for politicians to act. They must start to clean their private houses also.

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solving economy – knowledge transfer from north to south to rescue northern economies

thomasramseyervolkart — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:07:19 +0000

author Thomas Ramseyer
new order for prosperity

the idea is quite simple; knowledge, skills and know-how built by experience are to be transferred from the northern to the southern hemisphere
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government supported entities led by Confoederatio Helvetica (CH Switzerland) giving advice to anybody 4free
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the idea is to have elders from all over the globe hand down – as was used in ancient times – experienced skills, knowledge, knowhow, culture, manners, science as well as any reeligion and all of this 4free.
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projects generated by handing down will emerge for the benefit of all the people envolved. compulsory transfer of knowledge to locals from north rto south by integrating them and them acquidre skills and knowledge as well as substantial stakes in what they are doing thus then enabled to perform fully fledged and on their own. this being called people’s capitalism.
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unlimited access to knowledge, skills and science for all; holw to use is left to individuals
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Facts
Demographics
By now we all know it; given the northerns’ populations gradually growing old and older, it is crucial to find workers and money to step in. As it is the nature of elderly economies their participants stop their productivity and start liquidating their wealth. In the first stage pension funds become sheer pivots to transfer the money from savers to spenders; from active bredwinners to retirees. A lot of money also will be used to foster the latters. Furthermore the pensioners running out of time need money to go through what they wanted to through once they are on pension. Their wishes such as trips, holidays, sparetime, cars, leasure time, cruises, girls and the sort are to be materializing. It is evident that pension funds, banks, savings and other wealth have to monetize as to fulfil the dreams of certain people. Crucial question now is: “Who is going to buy the northern hemisphere’s industry plants?” The quite blunt answer to that question is a simple “NOBODY!”. There is no money because it is needed to foster and nourrish the old agers.

Who is going to step in?
The chinese? Never! This nation has grown old without being able to build up savings. The USA citizens? No! The US’ population will consist of a lot of middle and upper class people then on retirement as well as people living just below the limit to poorness. Their demographic structure will consist of a lot of younger people which descend from spanish speeking immigrants. In fact the entire northern hemisphere will be overaged.

Who is to drag the sackbarrow out of its pit? The SubSaharians themselves of course!!! They will be able
The answer is easy. In terms of demographics the ignored and long forgotten subsahara africans are the potential to step in.

Actual consideration of SubSahara Africa
Any researcher does never mention Africa. They think the world consists only of the northern hemisphere’s countries plus Argentina, Brazil and Australia. This being proof of their incapability of gazing farther then their tips of their noses.

What enables subsaharians to step in?
Education, education, education. Skills, know-how, knowledge, experience. In some countries the educative system is quite advanced. E.g. in 150 Million people Nigeria each year more than 100’000 graduates are spilling out from Universities. But their is no domestic economy waiting for them to insure a comfortable life.This country as well as other ECOWAS (West Africa Countries) are not capable to implement this problem solving domestic economy on their own.

Measures taken by northerners to prevent growing wealth in southern countries (e.g. ECOWAS)

1) No transfer of knowledge
All knowledge is held by expats which vanish in case of trouble or for policy reasons.

2) No transfer of know-how
Know-how is withheld from native people. The are only meant to use pickaxe, shovel and carry bags.
E.g. Chinese constructors move in and bring material and staff to the country. Upon completion of e.g. a fully fledged city in Nigeria they bluntly dropped the keys and left.

3) No access for numerous ECOWAS graduates to nothern universities
Compared to Northerners ECOWAS graduates are said to be not fit enough.

4) No implementation of not basic but fully fledged plants only (e.g. no refineries)
E.g. cars are only assembled in Nigeria

5) Restrictive Immigration rules for southerners
E.g. Switzerland has immigrate well educated and experienced northerners – germans, britains, americans, austrians, australien,

Reasons
Northern hemisphere countries are living off those countries’ wealth in terms of oil, gems, other important basic materials as well as exports of goods for numerous consumers. All refined goods imported are to be paid by money transfers of ECOWAS people living abroad supporting their families. This behaviour is killing rural activity because the locals are not competitive enough to face e.g. subventioned meet and other stuff from Europe and other countries. Other reason is the fact that a booming domestic economy will have ECOWAS countries use their resources themselves.

Development of domestic economy has no priority in West Africa (ECOWAS)
Also it can be seen on the page of ECOWAS (click Acitivities) that those countries hinder certain sectors such as Economic and Monetary Affairs, Environment, Food Security, ICT / Information Society and Rural Development. In short all the important sectors to boost a domestic economy are not taken care of. For this there must be some reason. It can be guessed that ECOWAS would lose any support from northerners. Other reason could be political influence corruption included.

Recommendation to rescue northern economies
1) Have SubSahara governments develope their countries’ domestic economies.
1.1) Support invention of strong democracies throughout SSA.
Make fit ECOWAS people to step in on time by preparing them already now.
Also have ECOWAS support other SSA countries replacing Caritas and others.
Support eliminating corruption by simply regulating northern companies.

2) Invent training centers for ECOWAS people
Have ECOWAS people trained on jobs while being productive. (e.g. Israels 1960s’ Kibbuzes)

2.1) Asylum seekers are to be trained in special camps/centers
Instead having asylum seekers idle educate and train them. Thus they will be able to invent small businesses in their home countries. Send them back. Accompany them with mikro-credits and supervision.

2.2) Training and education is granted only to people willing to go back to SSA in the first place
Have them sign a contract stating their will to go back after education. Incentive: mikro starting capital.

3) Have small and medium sized companies invest in Subsaharan Africa
As SSA markets are to heavily emerge incentives must be granted to those firms. Also they will be able to invent new distribution channels. Have them open local shareholder companies.

4) Have them compulsorily share knowledge with native people
Part of a joint venture contract must be the compulsary transfer of knowledge and know-how to local people.

5) Have them let participate local people by making them shareholders. (e.g. part of remuneration)
Have them invent treasury stock to be prepared for capital collection.

6) Have big sized firms invest in ECOWAS countries and have them bring in infrastructure as well as knowledge, know-how and skills
Infrastrucur can be financed by issuing shareholder capital. E.g. 150 Million Nigerian investing CHF 1.– each let firms raise capital of CHF 150 Millions.
7) Accept graduates from throughout SubSahra Africa to do their Masters in northern Universities
Oblige such students to go back to SSA for developing their countries’ economies and infrastructure.

8) Support also developed countries
When it comes to development and support by caritative NGO’s encourage them to go to partly developed countries thus enabling them to be of help in the very poor countries. E.g. East Africa
Have caritative elements change their criteria for supporting people in need.

9) Educate nurses for an easy start
Regarding growing numbers of old age people in the north cover the shortage of nurses by preparing ECOWAS nurses to come over to e.g. Europe. Most important issue here are language skills.

10) Advanced SSA countries develope retardet SSA countries
For the sake of Europe and other northern countries the goal Africans developing African Countries thus enabling them to step in abroad must be achieved within a rather short lapse of time.

Risk, return, threat and chances
1) Main risk is a failure due to lacking identification of northerners as well as southerners with the programme.

2) Main return will be the possibility of having southerners take over wealth due to retirees’ liquidation, take over jobs and becoming tax source in a later stage.

3) Main threat is the possibility migration issue getting out of hand.

4) Main chance is the fact that one of the most valuable assets of southern countries’ individuals is that they have no personal debts. This allow the economy to start from scratch.

Advantages
A florishing SubSahara Africa domestic economy will enable northerners to go on leading their decent lives. Assets can change hands ensuring demand thus shareprice stability. Employees, managers and workers will replace the retired ones in al later stage. New markets are being developed with all their risks and chances. Fostering is granted. The education systems will last because of sufficient numbers of students. The immigration problem starts to get gradually solved.

Advice
Tackle the problem. There is no time to lose.

EU and EUR under attack: USA trying to severly hit Europe with all their might

thomasramseyervolkart — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 21:33:54 +0000

Author Thomas Ramseyer
Our grandfathers already knew: everything once achieved in the US will pop up in Europe some ten years later

The truth thereof: everything achieved in the US is based on European Knowledge in the first place

Facts
Rules, Regulations, Law&Order
When it comes to rules, the US consider themselves world wide leaders. TGhey are the only ones to really make their way. Anybody wanting to do business with US-Firms is forcedly to accept US-law and order. It is evident the US pretend only trusting their own law, lawyers and language. In fact other countries’ laws are being mocked. America to overrule.

Environment
When it comes to environment the US are but egocentric. They do not really care about nor for the well-being of humanity. For the sake of financial advantage, humanity gets kicked. Even their own citizens are to get their wipe-downs.

US President blocked – 99/100st consider power- help- and sometimes useless
Their political system allows to block all costly measures traken in favour of humanity. Their presidents are only able to fulfil tasks in favour of a very small minority. 99 out of 100 are completly out of the picture.

GB – Supporter of last resort
The only country’s Government really siding them is Great Britain’s. Cameron desperately still considers GB America’s bridgehead on European Soil. This while the US ostensibly neglet the Atlantic for the benefit of the Pacific region. Criptically they may feel safe because of Cameron’s activity. Given UK’s domestic political mainstream the USA evidentally are reckoning without their host. Maybe they’re even going it over kettle.

Economics
Peter Drucker was fully educated in Europe before he immigrated into the US to get naturalized in 1942.
All of Peter F. Drucker’s thoughts have been adopted by the economies but for one:

QUOTE Wikipedia
Respect of the worker. Drucker believed that employees are assets and not liabilities. He taught that knowledgeable workers are the essential ingredients of the modern economy. Central to this philosophy is the view that people are an organization’s most valuable resource, and that a manager’s job is both to prepare people to perform and give them freedom to do so.
UNQUOTE Wikipedia

The respect of the workers now employees has gradually been dieing off in a more and more zynical environment.

Drucker’s work can be tracked down at the Drucker Archives at Peter F. Drucker Graduate Management Center.

Other Economists of European Origin
Another European economist and sociologist named Schumpeter also immigrated into the US and got the American citizenship in 1939.

Modern Economy actually is based on European experience and knowledge. When it comes to economy other great European names must be stated. Alfred Marshall, Adam Smith and Keynes.

Economy degenerates to Econometrics – Economists to Econometricians – the science of nit-picking nitpickers
Terms now are science of management, management science, business administration, all of them based on empirical science, statistical significance, correlation and all the other greek lettered items.

America’s evaporation discharge consists of econometricians only
Volkswirts, Magisters Diplomkaufmanns pervert to masters and bachelors in science of business administration. Administrators thus, no creators any more. Everything is being measured now to the fourth digit after the comma.

Financial Sector – Banking Business
Worldwide financial workers are polishing the apples of the new “old wine in new skins” financial education system. Commonsense talk is wandering off and gets replaced by fat-tail removing statisticians’s greek-english gobbledegook. Everybody must have been nursed by the same mammary, the Global Association of Investment Professionals’ Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Institute.

US-based Education adopted
Only USA grades such as e.g. CFA are recognized in the financial business community since quite some time. Seeked CFA seeks CFA to be seeked became the slogan. The eternal merry-go-round has been kicked off quite some time ago.

All educational insitutions around the globe; e.g. Switzerland: University North/East Switzerland and Business School Lausanne in Switzerland’s french speaking part.

Everybody singing the inbred same tune
The outcome of this are inbred opinions/solutions leading to disasters such as real-estate-mortgage-backed-FanniMae-FreddiMac-SPV-CDO-CDS-MBS-and-all-the-others only set-up for higher ROE based compensation.

Outsourcing of Core business knowledge
The very same gentlemen use to outsource whatever, you just name it. Specialization deprived them from the riches of cognitive thinking. I.e. they mutated into rating-abiding humble disciples of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. Anyone opposing the latter are to be mocked. Downgrading by Credit Rating Agencies leads to heavy selling activity at markets in distress.

Nowadays gutless executors following the guidelines cannot take risks anymore. The just measure portfolios against the markets. The latters’ ups ands downs do not really upset them; they just perform similarily or slightly better to fulfil.

Americas undercover agents to tackle Europe

All those noses educated by US’ financial econometrical educative system turn out to be a sort of fifth column.

Recommendation
Europe and its Interest level
To save the European economy and interest rate level, Europe’s governments must augment compulsery limits for local government debt positions in the universe of funds and other insitutional wealth.

Responsibility back in the hands of European Investment Managers
Institutional investors have to take back the responsibility when it comes to the quality of their investments. They simply have to re-inforce their credit departments.

Augmentation of EUR-Government debt
All EUR-Government debt must be accepted to collaterize Repo and other refinancing activity throughout Europe.

Implementation of exchange traded SPV’s
To support the European government debt market Special Purpose Vehicles open also to the public must be implemented as share-holder companies.

Great Britain
To ameliorate EU’s and EUR’s decision taking process let Great Britain go. At any rate it’s people prefer to leave.

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Derivatives: Taking destructive Potential off Banks’ Balance Sheets

thomasramseyervolkart — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 14:10:49 +0000

Author Thomas Ramseyer
Rescue of the World’s Financial System
Special Situations ask for Special Action
The Goal is the Survival of the worldwide Financial System
European Central Bank (ECB) supporting Market

Banks to found Shareholder Company (SPV); they outsource all Derivatives into this Special Purpose Vehicle

ECB buys debt of countries shaken by politicians, rating agencies and markets. By the end of November ECB has bought government bonds of EU-members amounting to some EUR 203.5 billion.

Impakt accurate to textbook
1) Sight funds massivly mushroom
The public holds additional EUR 203.5 billion on sight (cash and bills) because of ECB action taken.

2) EUR considered shaking more and more
Investors sell EUR against other currencies such as CHF. These funds are held very short term. Alternativly investors may buy treasury bills or debt of Swiss National Bank (SNB).

3) Domestic interest rates are pressurized
Swiss Government yield curve hover dependent on duration between 0.01% (one year) and 0.93s% (10 year).

Swiss Government debentures are even issued at prices above par thus negative rates.

4) Escape from EUR
Banks sell EUR as well as USD to the Swiss National Bank (Switzerland’s fully fledged central bank). The latter’s foreign exchange assets broaden to CHF 305.281 billion. (evaluated in Swissfrancs: USD 103.01 billion, EUR 154.876 billion, Yen 20.8 billion, CAD 9.1 billion and others 7.078 billion)

5) Funds never leave their domestic markets
The Swiss National Bank invest the proceeds of foreign exchange transactions in the specific countries’ treasury bill market.

Remarks
1) The content of the worldwide barrel does not change
The investors linger at the sideline. If the trust of investors and other institutions of the troubled countries thus in the earlier sold currencies ameliorates the weel will turn the other way round once more.

2) Investors are ready to act; they maintain liquidity
The investors linger at the offshoot. Once trust in the now ailing countries comes back the weel is turned back.

3) Recovery will upgrade economy – confidence ameliorates
EUR, USD and other currencies are bought back; money supply in Switzerland contracts. Same is valid for EU. EUR-bonds are being asked for again (e.g. Germany’s flop emerged because of incertitude regarding the umbrella) or bought back by the ECB. ECB’s money supply contracts; interest rates trend higher.

Important
In a crisis the public is not ready to contribute equity to the banks’ balance sheets. Credits not needed (high interest rates) are being cut. Thus the banks’ debt/equity relation upgrade by restructuring the business activity. This will shorten the balance sheets. Unwinding of derivatives also contributes to the downsizing.

Because of severe uncertainty regarding further interventions of the central banks liquidity provided by foreign exchange transactions and other measures taken at very low interest levels the public does not ask for it nor the banks do offer it. Other reason also is the worldwidely faltering economy. Regarding the insecurity of the time horizon of the Central banks’ and International Monetary Funds (IMF) action taken, stakeholders around the globe are reluctant to tap the market.

Remedy and Advice
Emergency situations ask for emergency measures
The financial system is concedered to survive

Governments
1) Similar to Swiss National Banks’ stability fund
On the occasion of freeing UBS from “poison papers” ECB has to invent an identical construct: issue credit to the EU; management by ECB. EUR 203 billion are transferred to the special purpose vehicle. On account of EU’s stability fund ECB accumulates depending on EU-members’ debtduration bonds and bills with remaining lives of one month to four years. ECB focuses on Italy and Greece. ECB concentrates on Italy in the first place because one third of the latter’s debt expire in 2012. Such papers are held until their final redemptions. As a matter of fact his turns out to be a guarantee of the EU.

2) All credit rating agencies’ judgements EU does not consider
Rating agencies are disempowered regarding EU-members’ government debt. The investors ascertain the Quality themselves. They enforce their research departments and take back responsibility.

3) The recovery of ramshackled EU-members’ financial situations
are discounted by the Euopean Union.

Banks
4) World wide banks get rid of their derivative assets
by forcedly putting them on the balance sheet of a share holder company at market conditions. Those banks hold shareholder capital of the company just found according to their ceded assets.

5) Unwinding of the items
The shareholder company unwinds all active transactions existing between the banks. The result of this unequally sense making Special Purpose Vehicel (SPV) will turn out to be zero. It can be liquidated.

The cost of unwind, foundation and liquidation are to be debited to the banks according to their stakes.

6) Further SPV to be found by banks
The purpose of this shareholder company is similar to a stock exchange’s to enable private households’ (institutions, private investors and governments) transactions. As those positions do counterbalance each other the total of the market value sums up to ZERO.

7) Revenue achieved from exchange transaction
The Result of the exchange activity is to be credited to the shareholders’ accounts according to their participation. Turnover tax will be transferred to the government.

Remarks
The impact of the measures taken is that the risk taking private households (institutions and private investors) and governments bear the netrisk. All influence to bank balance sheets thus are eliminated.

The volatility of the markets cools off. The banks gradually approach their core business which is to facilitate payments as well as reasonably sized credits.

United States President Obama’s full-boldied announcement to provide support and help for the EU and the whole world including the US respectivly, must be the persuasion of the politicians of the countries with banks active in the derivative market.

Europe: Government debt debacle – remedy to cure the problem

thomasramseyervolkart — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 19:00:01 +0000

Author Thomas Ramseyer
EFSF and ESM – the wrong way to solve the problem
Reasons
1) EFSF issues debt at substantial lower levels in favour of caving in countries such as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Bad behaviour of the aforesaid countries is even remunerated.

2) EFSF’s activity will be consolidated within ESM, an intergovernmental company. EU-Governments are subject to stepping in in case of Portugal’s failure to service the loan.

3) Outstanding pre-EFSF/ESM issued debt will stay the same risk for investors. The haircut will be effective never the less. Another bonus for the weeklings.

4) There will be two markets for government debt throughout Europe. It will become more and more difficult to tell one from the other in a later stage.

5) Because of their stakes in EFSF/ESM EU-countries’ qualitiy will gradually deteriorate thus leading to higher interest costs regarding their own issues.

6) It will become more difficult for EU-states to compete because of higher production costs.

Remarks
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as well as European Stability Mechanism (ESM) cannot be set up like a Hedge Fund.

The envisaged project heavily reminds of the “Gordian Knot” later Sigma Finance Corporation originally found by Deutsche Bank, F. Sarofim & Co and management to be staffed by some well reputated Universities’ offspringing econometricians. As known the Sigma acivity has been closed producing a multibillion USD loss to be faced by the rating adict community. Sigma’s double digit yielding equity literally imploded.

Remedy
1) EFSF fully fledged public shareholder company
EFSF’s construction must be a fully fledged public shareholder company. All investors will be entitled to recieving the pro-rata results of the company.

2) Sole purpose is buying week states’ outstanding debt
The sole business activity of EFSF is buying bonds issued by states recognized week by the market participants. E.g. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and others to come.

3) 80% shareholders’ equity – only 20% bonds allowed

The shareholders’ capital must count at least for 80% of the balance sheet.

Advantage – potentially huge gain
Equity Investors can participate in huge gains actually granted by the supervision of the week states’ financial situations by Germany and France.

Advice
1) Invent aforesaid public shareholder company

2) Do not run EFSF/ESM as intended by potentially parasitizing EU-members.

3) Every EU-country may issue its own debt.

4) If any EFSF/ESM acitivity is to be run parallelly on a voluntary level.

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